The Nigerian Presidency has faulted the latest economic assessment by the World Bank, which estimated that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty. It described the figure as “unrealistic” and not reflective of the country’s true economic situation.

In a statement shared on X (formerly Twitter), President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said the World Bank’s poverty estimate needed to be “properly contextualised” within the framework of global poverty measurement systems.

“While Nigeria values its collaboration with the World Bank and appreciates its analytical input, the figure must be properly contextualised. It is unrealistic,” Dare said.

According to the Presidency, the 139 million figure was derived from the global poverty benchmark of $2.15 per person per day (in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity terms), and should not be interpreted as an actual count of poor Nigerians. It explained that when converted to nominal terms, the $2.15 benchmark equates to about N100,000 per month at current exchange rates—well above the country’s new minimum wage of N70,000.

“There must be caution against viewing the World Bank’s numbers as a real-time headcount,” the statement added. “The estimate is based on a global model, not a direct reflection of local income realities.”

The government noted that the PPP methodology relies on historical consumption data—Nigeria’s last major survey was conducted in 2018/2019—and often excludes the vast informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of citizens. Hence, it views the figure as a modelled global estimate rather than an empirical assessment of conditions in 2025.

“What truly matters is the direction of progress, and Nigeria’s trajectory is now one of recovery and inclusive reform,” the statement added.

The Presidency outlined several welfare and development programmes introduced under President Tinubu’s administration to cushion the effects of reforms and promote long-term prosperity. Among these are:

Conditional Cash Transfers: Expanded to reach up to 15 million households nationwide through digital enrolment on the National Social Register, with over N297 billion disbursed since 2023.

Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme: Targeting all 8,809 electoral wards to deliver micro-infrastructure, livelihoods, and social services directly to communities.

National Social Investment Programmes (NSIP): Strengthened components such as N-Power, GEEP micro-loans (TraderMoni, MarketMoni, FarmerMoni), and the Home-Grown School Feeding initiative.

Food Security Initiatives: Distribution of subsidised grains and fertilisers, mechanisation partnerships, and the revival of strategic food reserves.

Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund: Financing critical energy, road, and housing projects to reduce living costs and stimulate employment.

National Credit Guarantee Company: Expanding access to affordable credit for small businesses, women, and youth entrepreneurs.

The statement further explained that the administration was addressing Nigeria’s poverty challenge by tackling deep-rooted structural issues that have hindered productivity for decades. It cited reforms such as fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and fiscal reallocation towards productive sectors as “painful but necessary choices” to resolve the underlying causes of poverty.

“Even the World Bank has acknowledged that these reforms are restoring macroeconomic stability and growth momentum,” the statement noted.

The Presidency emphasised that economic recovery would only be meaningful if it translated into real welfare improvements for Nigerians. It said the government’s medium-term goal is to ensure macroeconomic stability brings affordable food, quality jobs, and reliable infrastructure.

Investments, it added, are being scaled up in agriculture, manufacturing, and power—particularly in gas-to-power projects and skill development hubs—to promote job creation and lower living costs.

“Nigerians should begin to experience visible improvements in food prices, incomes, and purchasing power as these programmes mature,” the statement said.

The government also announced plans to consolidate social protection initiatives under a unified, data-driven framework for improved transparency and accountability. This includes expanding the National Social Register and scaling up existing NSIP schemes to ensure “no vulnerable community is left behind.”

The statement concluded by reaffirming President Tinubu’s commitment to building “a resilient and inclusive economy” where growth translates to improved living standards.
“Nigeria rejects exaggerated statistical interpretations detached from local realities,” it added. “The government remains focused on empowering households, expanding opportunities, and laying the foundation for a fairer and more prosperous nation.”

Meanwhile, the World Bank, in its October 2025 Nigeria Development Update titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” expressed concern that despite Nigeria’s recent stabilisation efforts, about 139 million citizens are living in poverty. The bank warned that the country risked losing its reform gains if the benefits were not felt at the household level.

World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, acknowledged that Nigeria’s recent reforms in exchange rate unification and fuel subsidy removal were “foundational” steps capable of reshaping the economy’s long-term trajectory.

“Over the last two years, Nigeria has commendably implemented bold reforms around the exchange rate and the petrol subsidy. These are the foundations on which the country can build a transformative programme,” he said.

Verghis compared Nigeria’s current reform phase to historic economic shifts in India during the early 1990s, emphasising that such rare opportunities must be seized decisively.

He noted that the reforms were already yielding results—such as rising revenues, stabilising foreign exchange, improving reserves, and easing inflation—but warned that these gains had not yet translated into better living conditions for ordinary Nigerians.

“In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty,” he said, noting that poverty, which began to rise in 2019, had deepened despite ongoing reforms.

This figure marks an increase from 129 million in April 2025 and 87 million in 2023, highlighting growing hardship across the country.

Opposition leaders, labour unions, and economists have reacted differently to the report. Some argued that the data reflects worsening economic realities, while others called for patience as the effects of ongoing reforms take time to materialise.

Labour representatives said inflation, currency depreciation, and rising living costs have eroded the value of wages, leaving many unable to afford basic needs.
Economists also pointed out that while structural reforms are necessary, their short-term effects have worsened poverty levels.

Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, explained that “the process of fixing what’s broken has temporarily aggravated poverty,” adding that the next phase of reform should prioritise welfare interventions in agriculture, infrastructure, and energy.

Similarly, Professor Akpan Ekpo, a former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Uyo, stressed that “growth alone cannot reduce poverty without deliberate policies.”
He urged the government to invest more in human capital and skills development, warning that cash transfers alone cannot solve long-term poverty.

Other economists, including former Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria President Okechukwu Unegbu and Proshare Nigeria Chief Economist Teslim Shitta-Bey, also acknowledged that while the reforms are necessary, they must be complemented with direct measures to cushion the poor and ensure inclusive growth.