NIGERIA’S AFRICAN EXPORT VALUE SURGES AS OIL DOMINATES TRADE

Nigeria’s exports to other African countries rose sharply to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, representing a 122.26 per cent increase from the N4.82tn recorded during the corresponding period of 2025. However, the increase in naira value has raised questions over how much of the growth reflects actual expansion in trade and how much is linked to the depreciation of the naira and higher domestic prices. Experts have also pointed to the increasing dominance of crude oil and petroleum products in Nigeria’s exports to the continent.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for an estimated 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in the first half of 2026, with a combined value of about N10.15tn. This compared with a 90.24 per cent share valued at N4.35tn in the first half of 2025. The oil and gas value chain therefore grew by 133.36 per cent between the two periods, outpacing the overall 122.26 per cent increase in exports to Africa.

Non-oil exports, however, recorded a different trend. Identifiable products including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations declined from about N309.46bn in the first half of 2025 to N296.61bn in the same period of 2026, representing a 4.15 per cent fall. Their share of Nigeria’s total exports to Africa also dropped from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent. It was noted that the non-oil figures were estimates based on the top product lines published by the NBS because the bureau does not separately provide a complete product-by-product breakdown of total exports to Africa.

Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, cautioned against interpreting the naira-denominated figures as evidence of a similar increase in real export earnings. He described the situation as a “naira illusion,” explaining that currency depreciation can make the value of exports appear significantly larger in naira terms without a corresponding increase in their dollar value. Teriba also linked part of the growth to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began exporting refined petroleum products, while trade and supply chain expert Marcel Mba similarly attributed a significant portion of the increase to refined petroleum products and petrochemicals from the refinery. Mba said non-oil exports such as cement, alcoholic drinks, vehicles and floor tiles could contribute to growth but cautioned against attributing most of the increase to non-oil trade.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group also raised concerns about the country's weak manufacturing base, noting that manufactured goods accounted for only 0.9 per cent of Nigeria’s intra-African trade in the first quarter of 2026, down from 2.0 per cent in the third quarter of 2025. In the second quarter alone, Nigeria exported N6.65tn to African countries, led by Togo with N1.50tn, South Africa with N1.34tn, Côte d’Ivoire with N1.22tn, Ghana with N461.36bn and Egypt with N455.81bn. Crude petroleum accounted for N3.23tn, while gas oil, kerosene-type jet fuel and ordinary motor spirit were also among the leading export products. The figures have renewed calls for greater manufacturing capacity, domestic value addition and more detailed trade data if Nigeria is to fully benefit from intra-African trade and the African Continental Free Trade Area.