Fresh concerns have emerged over the viability of Nigeria’s ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget, as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that the country’s crude oil production—excluding condensates—stood at 1.547 million barrels per day (bpd) in June 2025.

This figure marks a slight increase of 1.24% from the 1.528 million bpd recorded in May 2025, based on data from secondary sources, according to OPEC’s July 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), released yesterday.

However, using figures obtained through direct communication, OPEC reported Nigeria’s production at 1.505 million bpd in June, up from 1.453 million bpd in May.

In a further blow to budget expectations, Nigeria’s benchmark crude, Bonny Light, was priced at $69 per barrel on Tuesday—$6 below the government’s projected reference price of $75 per barrel for the 2025 budget.

The 2025 national budget was built on assumptions of producing 2.06 million bpd at an average price of $75 per barrel, with an exchange rate of ₦1,500 to the dollar.

Speaking to Vanguard, Professor Wumi Iledare, a petroleum economist and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, expressed concern:

“I had warned that the budget assumptions were overly optimistic, even unrealistic. Now, we’re seeing the consequences.
The key parameters—production volume, oil price, and costs—are all volatile and have significantly deviated from the projections. It’s clear the budget formulation process needs substantial reform.”

Echoing this sentiment, Mazi Colman Obasi, National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), said:

“Nigeria is in a delicate economic phase and must tread carefully. We tend to invest in less impactful programmes rather than focus on sectors that drive sustainable economic growth.
We need to optimise oil and gas revenues and channel them into diversifying our economy. It’s time to reduce our dependency on oil and gas.”