While the Federal Government maintains that food inflation is declining, market observations across Nigeria reveal a contrasting reality — particularly in the South-West and South-East, where food prices remain significantly elevated, causing growing concern among traders and consumers.

According to the June 2025 Consumer Price Index from the National Bureau of Statistics, food inflation eased slightly to 38.2%, down from 40.66% in May, largely due to increased food supply and policy interventions. However, ground reports from markets in states like Lagos, Oyo, Delta, Rivers, Anambra, and others suggest that this relief is yet to reach many households.

In major markets across Lagos, Oyo, Osun, and other South-West states, the prices of staple items such as rice, beans, yam, tomato, and garri have either remained stagnant or continued to rise.

Rising Prices in South-West States

In Lagos, local parboiled rice surged from ₦53,000 in May to ₦77,000 by July. A 50kg bag of maize increased from ₦68,000 to ₦78,000, and a bag of white garri now costs ₦60,000. Tomatoes experienced a sharp increase, rising from ₦58,500 per basket to ₦110,000 within two months. Similarly, onions went from ₦85,000 to ₦140,000 per bag during the same period.

Traders blame erratic pricing and transportation costs. One Ikorodu market trader noted the rapid fluctuations, stating that rice, which sold for ₦53,750 in May, had risen to ₦77,000. Another vendor in Iyana Iba attributed the steep hike in tomatoes and peppers to rising transport costs from the North.

In Oyo State, while Bodija Market recorded some price reductions, Gbagi Market saw price hikes. A paint container of beans climbed from ₦1,200 in May to ₦3,000. Fish prices also increased drastically; for instance, Sawa fish rose from ₦500 to ₦1,000, and a carton of Titus fish jumped from ₦18,000 to ₦125,000. Yams also doubled or tripled in price.

In Osun, prices continued to soar. A 50kg bag of rice reached ₦74,000, red beans sold for ₦82,000, and white beans peaked at ₦120,000. Traders pointed to inadequate supply into local markets in recent weeks.

South-East, South-South Residents Lament Soaring Food Costs

In Anambra, Imo, and Delta states, food prices have continued to climb. In Anambra markets like Relief, Ochanja, and Eke-Awka, prices have jumped by up to 30% between May and July. Locally milled rice increased from ₦38,000–₦45,000 to ₦55,000–₦65,000, while foreign rice went as high as ₦100,000.

A rice seller in Onitsha emphasized the burden on families, citing triple transport costs and reduced stock due to high logistics expenses. Yam, tomato, and pepper prices have also surged across major South-East markets.

In Delta’s Asaba, the cost of a paint container of tomatoes rose from ₦6,000 to ₦8,000. Yam prices remain high at ₦5,000–₦6,000 per tuber, while garri remains at ₦3,000 per paint bucket, unchanged despite the onset of the harvest season.

In Imo, food costs have risen further. A small basket of tomatoes climbed from ₦28,000 in early July to ₦30,000. Sugar increased to ₦80,000 per bag, while flour rose to ₦65,000. Rice, once ₦70,000–₦80,000 per bag, is now up to ₦90,000.

Slight Relief in Port Harcourt, But Pressure Remains

Rivers State offered marginal relief, with a slight reduction in some prices. Still, traders noted that the general cost of living remains high.

Abuja Mirrors Southern Trend

In the Federal Capital Territory, food prices continue to climb. A 50kg bag of Nigerian rice now sells for ₦65,000, while foreign brands have risen to ₦85,000. Garri, maize, tomatoes, pepper, onions, and yams have also recorded significant increases.

A grain trader confirmed that Nigerian rice rose from ₦58,000 in May to ₦65,000. A tomato basket previously sold for ₦30,000 now costs over ₦60,000. Pepper prices more than doubled as well, increasing from ₦5,000 to ₦11,000 per small basket.

Declining Prices in Kaduna, Sokoto, and Benue

In contrast to the South, some northern states have begun to witness price drops.

At Kaduna Central Market, the price of foreign rice declined from ₦90,000 to ₦83,000, while local rice went from ₦70,000 to ₦65,000. Tomato prices dropped significantly due to fresh harvests. Darika tomatoes, once ₦70,000 per bag, are now ₦35,000. Pepper and garri have also become more affordable.

Sokoto markets reflect similar trends. Indian rice dropped to ₦50,000, and Thai long-grain rice reduced to ₦68,000. White beans and maize prices have also eased slightly. New yam tubers range from ₦4,000 to ₦5,500.

In Benue, milled rice that sold for ₦35,000–₦42,000 per basin now costs ₦28,000–₦32,000. Garri prices fell from ₦75,000 to around ₦60,000 per bag. Beans and perishable food items like tomatoes and peppers also declined in price.

FG Eyes Agric Hubs to Curb Post-Harvest Losses

The Federal Government has pledged to tackle post-harvest losses by developing Agricbusiness Industrial Hubs. Vice President Kashim Shettima, represented by the Minister of Agriculture, Abubakar Kyari, made this known during the groundbreaking of one such hub in Ibadan, Oyo State.

The initiative, backed by international partners like the African Development Bank and Islamic Development Bank, aims to strengthen Nigeria’s agricultural sector through innovation and collaboration.

Experts Attribute Price Surge to Structural Weaknesses

Economic analysts say the persistent food inflation in southern Nigeria reflects deeper issues in agricultural supply chains, infrastructure, and regulation.

One expert noted that insecurity in parts of the North hinders food production and transport, while poor roads and multiple intermediaries drive up costs in the South.

Others blamed the absence of price regulation, lack of storage facilities, and the growing urban demand for food in cities like Lagos, Ibadan, and Aba.

While macroeconomic indicators may suggest improvement, experts argue these figures often fail to align with the lived experiences of ordinary Nigerians, especially in the South.

Additional concerns include erratic weather patterns and climate change, which have disrupted farming cycles, particularly in parts of the South-West where rainfall has been inconsistent.

Overall, the divide between official inflation data and real-world market conditions continues to fuel public skepticism, with growing calls for urgent and practical interventions to stabilize food prices nationwide.