The long-standing debate over Nigeria’s power rotation resurfaced Tuesday as key northern stakeholders—political figures, technocrats, traditional rulers, and civil society groups—gathered in Kaduna to evaluate President Bola Tinubu’s governance two years into his term.

Organized by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation, the high-level conference at Arewa House attracted influential voices from across the 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory. Themed “Assessing Electoral Promises: Fostering Government-Citizen Engagement for National Unity,” the two-day forum highlighted both regional concerns and broader national implications.

Key figures present included the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume, National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Christopher Musa, and other senior security officials—all northerners serving in Tinubu’s administration.

Representing the President, Akume assured attendees that the “Renewed Hope Agenda” was yielding visible results. However, his remarks stirred fresh political tensions.

SGF: North Should Wait Until 2031

Akume reminded the gathering of the gentleman’s agreement on rotational leadership, stating that it would be the North’s turn to produce the next president only after the South completes its turn in 2031.

“In 1999, northern leaders like Solomon Lar, Adamu Ciroma, and Jerry Gana agreed on rotational power as a pillar for peace and unity. Based on that unwritten consensus, the North will be eligible again in 2031,” he said.

He urged patience, assuring, “Nigeria will still be here in 2031. When the North’s time comes, it will be obvious.”

Regional and Party Responses

The Middle Belt Forum backed Akume’s stance, emphasizing that although power rotation is not codified in law, it remains an important convention that fosters stability in a diverse country. The Forum also lamented Nigeria’s enduring regionalism, describing it as a colonial legacy requiring a transformative approach to leadership.

Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-political group, also supported the SGF’s call for continuity. The group emphasized that maintaining the South’s hold on the presidency until 2031 would promote equity, cautioning northern politicians against premature moves ahead of 2027.

They commended Akume’s transparency and highlighted major infrastructure projects under Tinubu—including the Kaduna refinery rehabilitation, pipeline expansions, and strategic rail networks—as signs of genuine commitment to national integration.

Opposition Parties Push Back

However, not all voices were in agreement. The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) warned against barring northern candidates from contesting the 2027 election, citing previous breaches of balance, particularly Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023. NNPP argued that fairness should apply across both religious and regional lines.

Similarly, the Labour Party maintained that merit and competence—not geography—should determine presidential candidacy. The party stressed the need to prioritize national development, security, and economic reform over rotational politics.

Criticism from Within

Former SGF Babachir Lawal strongly rebuked Akume’s position, accusing the ruling party of hypocrisy. He argued that having broken the norm with a same-faith ticket, the administration could no longer insist on power rotation as a principle.

“Where is it written that a president can’t be replaced simply because he’s from the South?” Lawal asked, asserting that the APC’s actions in 2023 voided any claim to moral authority on zoning.

Party Stances

The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) endorsed a southern presidency in 2027 and affirmed its commitment to fielding a candidate from the region. However, the party distanced itself from any opposition coalition it views as politically obsolete.

In contrast, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) dismissed calls for patience, saying the current administration has failed and will be voted out before 2031. According to the PDP, Nigerians will determine Tinubu’s fate at the ballot box in 2027, not political conventions.

Kwankwaso Draws Fire

Former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso also entered the fray, alleging southern favoritism in federal project allocations. His claims were quickly countered by government sources citing higher budgetary commitments to northern infrastructure under Tinubu’s leadership.

Responding to Kwankwaso, a former APC spokesperson accused him of attempting to stir ethnic sentiment for political gain. The spokesperson insisted the South must complete its eight-year term, adding that tactics exploiting regional grievances would no longer sway voters.

“After eight years of northern leadership, it is fair for the South to complete its turn. No one can intimidate the South with threats of block votes anymore,” he stated.

Outlook

With differing views across political, regional, and ideological lines, the Kaduna gathering has intensified national debate over succession politics. As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, the contest over zoning, equity, and national unity is poised to shape the next chapter in the country’s democratic journey.